He said, she said: Governor’s race tied


Tom Foley, the Republican nominee for governor,  on HANradio in August.

Tom Foley, the Republican nominee for governor, on HANradio in August.


Men and women likely voters are miles apart, leaving the Connecticut governor’s race between Democratic incumbent Gov. Dannel Malloy and Republican challenger Tom Foley tied 43%-43%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, Oct. 29. Independent candidate Joe Visconti has 7%, with 6% undecided.

This compares to results of an Oct. 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University, showing Gov. Malloy with 43% of likely voters to Foley’s 42%.

With Visconti out of the race, Foley gets 46% to Malloy’s 45%, according to the poll.

In the three-way matchup, independent voters go to Foley over Malloy 48%-33%, with 14% for Visconti.

Republicans back Foley 87%-7%, with 4% for Visconti. Democrats go to Malloy 82%-9%, with 3% for Visconti.

The gender gap remains wide, as Malloy leads Foley 52%-35% among women, with 5% for Visconti, while Foley leads Malloy 51%-34% among men, with 10% for Visconti.

“The Connecticut governor’s race is a fight to the finish between Gov. Dannel Malloy and challenger Tom Foley — and between men and women,” said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Independent candidate Joe Visconti’s numbers have edged slightly downward. Not a surprise given that many of his supporters told us they could change their mind. Perhaps we are beginning to see some of those more conservative-minded Visconti voters shift to Foley as the election draws near,” Dr. Schwartz said.

Just six days before the election, 86% of Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 13% say they might change their mind. Their minds are made up, say 89% of Malloy voters and 90% of Foley backers, while 56% of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

Connecticut likely voters give Foley a split 43%-43% favorability rating, while Malloy gets a negative 41%-52% score. Visconti remains unknown as 75% of voters still don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

“Foley’s favorability rating has improved. Voters now have a mixed opinion of him after viewing him negatively. Voters’ views of Malloy are stable and negative,” Schwartz said.

“Will Connecticut visits by President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama in the final week of the campaign motivate the Democratic base to turn out in an election where they otherwise might stay home? And will that be enough to put Malloy ahead?

“Or will New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie’s appearance on behalf of Foley get Republicans fired up more?” Schwartz asked.

From Oct. 22-27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 838 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

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